Arab Open University Forecasting Demand Toffee Inc Case Study

No plagiarism, you should write the answer under each question.

Questions:

1. Explain what kind of sales demand Toffee Inc. is looking at for Seven Star.

2. Assume a perfect forecast for the month of January 2008. Develop the Exponential Smoothing forecasts using a smoothing constant of ??=0.30.

3. Calculate the twelve-month simple moving average forecasts.

4. Compute the six-month weighted moving average forecasts by taking 50% from the most recent month and 10% each from the prior months.

5. Explain the pros and cons of using various forecast accuracy measures such as MAD, MSE, and MAPE. Which of these forecast accuracy measures do you think is most appropriate to determine the best method used in Question 2, Question 3, and Question 4. Explain.

6. Using your chosen forecast accuracy measure in Question 5, determine which of the above methods in Question 2, Question 3 and Question 4 produces more accurate forecasts. Explain why.

7. Compute the bias and tracking signals for the best method decided in Question 6. Explain the status of performance of this method.

You MUST support your answers with detailed calculations following appropriate steps.

You may use Microsoft Excel to calculate both forecasts and forecast accuracy measures.

Please use APA Style to prepare your report.