San Jose State University Moving Average Method Discussion

Moving Average I need to do this for Moving Average

Example

Weighted Moving Average, “This method is similar to the moving average, except that it assigns more weight to the most recent value in the time series” (Stevenson, 2018). The most recent value will be assigned or multiple by the highest weight, on the other hand, the least recent value will be assigned or multiple by the lowest weight. We decide the weights by the group leader’s last name. Our leader’s last name, Figone, will have the weights of 5,3,1, which result in the sum of the assigned values that need to be divided by the sum of weights, 9. After having the weights, we assign the weights from high to low by the most recent value in the time series. We sum up the assigned values from Quarter 4 to Quarter 2 of 2019 and divide the values by the sum of Wts. to forecast the sale of Quarter 1 in 2020, which is $18,577.55. With the same process, we calculate the rest of the 3 periods for 2020. However, for Quarter 2,3 and,4 of 2020, we don’t have the actual sale data from the previous Quarter. In this case, we use the naive forecast method. According to the textbook, the naive forecast method is using a previous value of a time series as the basis for a forecast (Stevenson, 2018). Therefore, we use the previous forecast sale value to serve as the historical actual data in the calculation of the Quarter 2,3,4 of 2020. The forecasting sales for Quarter 2, 3, 4 of 2020 are $18,683.75, $18,676.75, and $18,667.99.

Table1. below shows how we decide the Weights (Wts.).

Table 2 below shows the forecasting sale for 2020 by using Wt. Mov. Avg Method.

Table 1

The parameters for the Facebook Forecast

Table 2

The data of the Wt. Mov. Avg forecasting