Northeastern University Time Series Questions Discussion

Question 1: Suppose that are are given a time series and are asked to forecast the values of the time series during one or more of the future periods. Explain a few of the actions that you will undertake as your preliminary investigation of the given time series before you decide which particular forecasting method you should use.
Question 2: In many applications, a time series decomposition (i.e., time series filtering) is used to separate or decompose a time series ???? into its trend, seasonal, and irregular components. In some of these applications, the decomposition relationship is assumed to be additive; while in other applications the decomposition relationship is assumed to be multiplicative. Explain in what situations you would prefer to use an additive decomposition method, and in what situations you would prefer to use a multiplicative method in your time series decomposition. Furthermore, mention a specific example of a real-life time series that is of interest to some enterprise, and for which you would prescribe a multiplicative decomposition.

Note: an additive decomposition of ???? is a decomposition of the form: ????=????????????+??????????????????+????????????????????; and a multiplicative decomposition is a decomposition of the form: ????=????????????×??????????????????×????????????????????.

In one reply to a classmate, explain with reasons and with constructive criticisms, whether you agree or disagree with the course of actions that your classmate has stated he/she would undertake before deciding what forecasting method to use for a given time series.
In a second reply to a classmate and in reference to his/her response to Question 2, explain what particular forecasting method you would use to forecast the future values of your classmate’s example of a real life time series for which he/she has prescribed a multiplicative decomposition.

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