MIS 301 San Diego State University Discrete Probability Calculator Paper

Binomial

Your Startup paid Marketing Inc $320,000 to promote Startup’s Name to Industry executives.

After six months, Marketing Inc sends you a report stating, 30% of Industry executives now

recognize the name Startup. You randomly call 15 Industry executives. What is the probability

exactly

executives have heard Startup’s Name?

…no more than

executives recognize the name Startup?

…more than

executives have heard of Startup?

…at least

executive know Startup’s Name?

Geometric

The success rate for XX-XY medically assisted pregancy is .04 and costs $18,000 per treatment.

What is the likelihood of

failures before Serachel becomes pregnant?

What is the total amount Serachel pays for her treatment(s)?

Salesperson’s call to sale conversion rate is 2.6%. What is the likehood

there are

unsuccessful calls before the first sale?

it takes less than

calls for Salesperson to make a sale?

Hypergeometic

Lottery blows 75 numbered ping pong balls wildy around in a machine, and randomly draws 15

winning balls. Tickets can be bought with anywhere from 1- 15 numbers. I.M. Lucky buys a lottery

ticket, selecting 9 numbers. What is the probablity I.M. Lucky matches

…exactly

numbers?

…no more than

numbers?

Assorted 11

Studies show a person’s state of mind influences their experiences. Might that be reason enough

for those who like Horror films to really like such a film if released on the 13th of the month, a day

considered superstious in the USA. (An iconic Horror film franchise is called, Friday the 13th.)

Of the last 125 Horror films 14 opened on the 13th day of the month. What distribution can be

used to calculate the likeihood the makers of Horror films feel lucky about realeasing Horror

movies on the 13th day of the month?

In the hypergeometric calculator, input ST = 30, GS = 10, TSX = 15, and GSX = 3. Looking at the

graph, what value is most likey to occur?

Assuming you choose the correct value in question 12 (You can check by looking at the exact

probabilities) why is it most likey to occur?

Using the geometric distribution, if the probablity of interest is .22 what is the standard

deviation?

Using the binomial, if n = 50 and the probability of success = .20, how many success out of 50 trials

would you expect to occur?

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