APU Worldwide Threat Assessment of US Intelligence Community Discussion

401

In PIA, Heuer defines “satisficing” as “choosing the first hypothesis that appears good enough rather than carefully identifying all possible hypotheses and determining which is most consistent with the evidence.” For this week’s discussion, describe (1) a personal or professional instance in which you were guilty of “satisficing;” (2) the consequences associated with the rush to judgment; and (3) a strategy that could have been employed to mitigate or prevent this particular case of satisficing from occurring. Please note the difference between “satisficing” which is accepting a hypothesis that has been deemed “good enough” from mirror imaging which is expecting someone to act a certain way based on what others expect them to do.

Reading material:

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf

434

Discuss the challenges for intelligence analysts when considering the usage of dual-use material.

Reading material:

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Intelligence%20Reports/2014%20WWTA%20%20SFR_SSCI_29_Jan.pdf

https://www-jstor-org.ezproxy1.apus.edu/stable/27640737?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

https://www-jstor-org.ezproxy1.apus.edu/stable/4137478?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

Put each title number if separate word documents. 00-350 words.